After the windfall
The bankers pitched 60-90% growth in the IPL’s next media rights cycle. The buyers modelled 20. The gap between those numbers is the story.
The bankers who advised on the sale of the Royal Challengers Bengaluru and the Rajasthan Royals had a story to tell about the future of Indian cricket’s broadcast economy. Citigroup relayed it on Diageo’s behalf. The Raine Group conveyed it for Manoj Badale’s Emerging Media.
The narrative, as The State of Play reported in January, was built on a series of escalating assumptions: a 60-70% media rights uplift baked into the RCB pitch for the next broadcast cycle, and 80-90% into RR’s.
On Monday, the binding bids arrived. For RCB, two consortiums: Swedish PE giant EQT with Premji Invest, first reported by Moneycontrol, competing against Ranjan Pai’s group with KKR and Temasek. Diageo, which aims to conclude its strategic review by March 31, now has something to work with. For RR, four parties: Aditya Birla Group with David Blitzer’s BOLT Ventures, the Times of India Group, Kal Somani’s consortium with Rob Walton, and a last-minute entry featuring Aditya Mittal, son of LN Mittal, first reported by Moneycontrol.
The field itself indicates something. European industrial capital is entering cricket ownership for the first time. A global media house. Indian conglomerates that have spent decades observing this league from the outside. The IPL has always attracted money. It has rarely attracted this kind of money, from this many directions, at this level of institutional seriousness. Which makes what these buyers discovered when they looked at their own spreadsheets all the more interesting.
The gap between what the bankers projected and what the buyers modelled is a fundamental disagreement about what Indian cricket’s broadcast economy can actually deliver. The answer will determine the value of every IPL franchise when the next rights cycle is written.
